一种新的基本概率函数构建方法及应用

针对Dempster-Shafer(D-S)证据推理中基本概率赋值函数的构造问题,基于模糊聚类分析给出了一种新的构建方法.将它应用到雷达目标识别的仿真实验中,并与灰关联法相比较,结果表明该方法切实可行,不仅提高了基本概率赋值的准确性和稳定性,而且利用了数据的结构信息,有效缓解了证据的冲突.     

Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949

Using a new set of data from Greek Army sources, US military archives, and Communist Party documents, the paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece during 1946–1949. A dynamic Lotka–Volterra model is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. A regional analysis finds that the mobilization of guerrilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions of political rivals. Using neoclassical growth-accounting, the economic cost of the conflict is estimated to surpass an annual GDP, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The same framework is employed to assess the outcome in counterfactual situations discussed in this paper.     

On the contribution of defense innovation to China’s economic growth

As the most knowledge-intensive industrial sectors, China’s defense industries are developing very fast. The present paper will explore the contribution of China’s defense innovation to its economic growth. Cobb–Douglas production function, integrating defense and non-defense stock in knowledge, is applied during the course. In addition, an input–output analysis of defense equipment procurement was done. Positive effect of China’s defense innovation on economic growth has been revealed by comparing the results from the two methods. And some suggestions are made to strengthen the effect.     

船舶辐射噪声的相关维提取

船舶辐射噪声是一种混沌,因而也具有分形特征。利用提取相关维的GP算法,分析了船舶辐射噪声的分形特征,所得结果具有较好的参考价值。     

Ambulance location for maximum survival

This article proposes new location models for emergency medical service stations. The models are generated by incorporating a survival function into existing covering models. A survival function is a monotonically decreasing function of the response time of an emergency medical service (EMS) vehicle to a patient that returns the probability of survival for the patient. The survival function allows for the calculation of tangible outcome measures—the expected number of survivors in case of cardiac arrests. The survival‐maximizing location models are better suited for EMS location than the covering models which do not adequately differentiate between consequences of different response times. We demonstrate empirically the superiority of the survival‐maximizing models using data from the Edmonton EMS system. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

石河子气温变化趋势特点的奇异谱分析

本文采用1961—2001年石河子地区的气象资料，利用奇异谱分析的方法，分析了40a来气温变化，结果表明，石河子的气温变化具有4个明显的变化周期，分别为33—34年，11—12年，8—9年，3—4年；利用噪声驱动阻尼振子模型对得到的时间周期做了初步的分析，并利用拟合函数集对石河子气温给出了对应的函数变化关系。利用该方法可以对气温的变化特征有一个明晰的物理理解，也可以为将来的气温变化趋势的预测给出一定的借鉴作用。     

某型轴配流径向柱塞泵容积效率分析

分析了影响某型轴配流径向柱塞泵容积效率的各项因素,并对内部泄漏作了重点分析;定量分析了某型轴配流径向柱塞泵活塞与转子、配流轴与转子间的泄漏,并实验分析了配流轴与转子间泄漏对容积效率的影响.实验结果表明,当内部泄漏增加时,泵的容积效率会降低.     

基于Copula方法的含交易方违约的信用违约互换定价

本文讨论了含交易方违约的信用违约互换定价问题，应用无套利原理得到了模型的价格，文章采用蒙特卡洛方法对模型进行了数值模拟，讨论了模型的价格与合约期限以及公司违约相关系数的关系。     

Threshold optimization for weighted voting classifiers

Weighted voting classifiers considered in this paper consist of N units each providing individual classification decisions. The entire system output is based on tallying the weighted votes for each decision and choosing the one which has total support weight exceeding a certain threshold. Each individual unit may abstain from voting. The entire system may also abstain from voting if no decision support weight exceeds the threshold. Existing methods of evaluating the reliability of weighted voting systems can be applied to limited special cases of these systems and impose some restrictions on their parameters. In this paper a universal generating function method is suggested which allows the reliability of weighted voting classifiers to be exactly evaluated without imposing constraints on unit weights. Based on this method, the classifier reliability is determined as a function of a threshold factor, and a procedure is suggested for finding the threshold which minimizes the cost of damage caused by classifier failures (misclassification and abstention may have different price.) Dynamic and static threshold voting rules are considered and compared. A method of analyzing the influence of units' availability on the entire classifier reliability is suggested, and illustrative examples are presented. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 322–344, 2003.     

红外与可见光图像融合算法性能评估

在研究小波分析的基础上,鉴于不同小波函数和融合规则对融合效果的影响,通过改变小波函数和融合规则对红外与可见光图像进行大量融合实验;首先,研究了不同类型小波函数的性质,分析了不同融合算法的特点;接着,对融合实验结果进行了定量分析和比较,为不同应用目的和场合正确选择合适的小波函数和融合规则进行红外和可见光图像融合提供了理论依据.